Serbia Outlook: Growth remains strong; hunt for IG rating continues

While EU growth struggles continue in 2024, Serbia marches on, posting 4.3% y/y growth in 1H24, coming in only behind Malta when comparing with EU members. Growth is predominantly consumption-driven, but investments are also picking up momentum. On the external side, we are witnessing largely expected pressure. Due to the mentioned 1H24 overperformance, we have slightly fine-tuned this year’s growth expectation, while the next two years have also been boosted, accounting for the massive Expo 2027 investment pipeline. Optimism also stems from credit rating developments, as all three major credit agencies have upgraded the country’s outlook to positive this year.