US election: What would a Trump victory mean for CEE?

There are two issues we see having potentially the greatest impact on the markets globally: future US trade policy and the development of the country’s public budget. For the CEE region, the declarations regarding aid to Ukraine and, more broadly speaking, matters of defense will be important developments as well. Donald Trump has repeatedly called for tariffs of 10% on all imports and 60% on imports from China. The German Economic Institute looked at the impact of tariffs on the world economy, including Germany. We use its estimates for Germany as a key input to estimate the impact on CEE. Substantial decline of Germany's GDP would be obviously negative for the growth in the region.