CEE Growth Nagivator after 3Q24 GDP data

Overall, the economic recovery has been weaker than initially anticipated as 3Q24 flash GDP data surprised mostly to the downside. Regarding the outlook for 2025, we continue to see risks to the downside concerning our current forecasts due to the relatively sluggish recovery of the German economy. In Czechia, we already revised the 2025 growth forecast down to 2.3%. While the Eurozone as a whole seems to be doing slightly better than expected, the weakness of the German industry is weighing on the economic development of the main trading partner of CEE countries. Moreover, the increased uncertainty in the aftermath of the US election and the impending presidency of Donald Trump will affect market sentiment and the appetite to undertake new investment projects. The scale of protectionism will determine to what extent the economies in the region will be held back in 2025 and beyond.