Slovenia: Growth expected to accelerate despite challenging environment

CEE Macro Outlook , 13. Dez.
3Q24 GDP came in line with our expectations, accelerating to 1.4% y/y. Such performance was supported by the steady private consumption footprint, while net exports surprised on the positive side. We see similar growth performance going into 4Q24, suggesting overall FY24 performance around 1.5% mark. Looking into 2025, domestic demand is expected to drive growth while challenges regarding the external demand developments imply less supportive net exports contribution ahead. We see GDP gradually accelerating towards 2.0-2.5% band during 2025-26 period, with risks remaining present and linked to external demand uncertainties.