Inflation and central banks meetings

Several CEE countries will publish February inflation figures. In Hungary and Slovakia, inflation should decrease. Romania should also see a drop, but the decline will be marginal, due to the increase in natural gas prices. In Poland, February’s inflation was elevated above 5%. There are two central bank meetings scheduled this week. In Poland, we do not expect any change in the policy rate. However, the new inflation and growth projections will be published, which may shed additional light on when monetary easing can be expected in Poland. Serbia is to remain on hold, with inflation above expectations and the target. Industrial output growth in January will be released in several CEE countries (Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania and Czechia). In Czechia, retail sales growth will be published as well. Trade data is due in Slovakia, Czechia, Romania and Serbia, as is wage growth in Slovakia and Romania. Finally, on Friday after market close, we have ratings reviews for Croatia (Fitch and S&P), Poland (Fitch) and Romania (Moody’s). Only for Romania do we see the possibility of an outlook change from stable to negative. This should have a limited impact on markets, however, as Fitch and S&P have already assigned negative outlooks.