CEE Outlook | Global trends shaping 2025 growth outlook
CEE Macro Outlook , 11. März
We expect 2025 GDP growth to accelerate in all CEE countries except for Croatia and Slovakia. In Croatia, we expect a slight cooling off, while Slovakia should sustain a similar pace of growth. Average growth in the region should be 0.6 percentage points higher in 2025 (2.6% vs. 2.0% in 2024). Unfortunately, the recovery is not going to be as strong as we expected at the end of 2024. We revised the full-year growth forecast downwards in several CEE countries already after seeing 4Q24 flash estimates.
We continue to see tariffs as a key downside risk to our growth forecast. We keep watching the sentiment indicators and remain worried about declining consumer confidence, in particular. Assessment of financial situation of households has worsened as well lately. On the other hand, plan to ReArm Europe (activating escape clause and introducing the new instrument worth EUR 150 billion) in combination with prospects of German huge infrastructure spending in the coming years should provide a fiscal impulse and boost the growth. Markets have already began to price in such scenario.