First rays of hope for AT GDP

The Austrian Institute of Economic Research published its flash estimate of Austrian economic performance in the first quarter today. According to the institute, GDP contracted by 0.7% y/y. On a quarterly basis, however, growth of 0.2% is expected, the first in 2.5 years. In 2025, US tariffs are likely to weigh on the Austrian export economy and thus also on investment. We therefore expect GDP growth of -0.5% for the year as a whole. In 2026, we expect GDP growth of +0.3%, due to a positive impetus from the planned German infrastructure program.