CEE Growth Navigator after 1Q25 flash GDP

CEE Macro Outlook , 19. Mai
Compared to the last report, we made visible adjustments to our growth forecast in reaction to flash estimates of 1Q25 GDP data. In April, we reacted to the announcement of Trump’s tariffs. At that point, the revision of forecasts for 2025 was rather marginal as we considered that potential impact on CEE growth from German fiscal impulse (positive) will be outweighed by tariffs shock (negative). After seeing 1Q25 flash estimates, however, we further slashed the growth forecasts in Hungary (to 0.8% in 2025), Serbia (to 3.1% this year) and Slovenia (to 1.5% in 2025), while in Romania and Slovakia, the risks remain skewed to the downside. Only Czechia and Poland expanded in line with expectations and with solid growth dynamics (2.0% y/y and 3.2% y/y, respectively), and we maintain our 2025 GDP forecasts in these two countries.