Romania Special | We revise downwards GDP growth forecast for 2024 to +3.3%
CEE Economies Special Report , 20. Sep.
Weak external demand prospects and depressed domestic consumption expected to recover slower than previously assumed in 2024 determined us to revise GDP growth forecast for 2024 to +3.3% from +4.2%.
EU fund absorption is crucial for 2023 growth estimated by us at +2.1% and will most likely be a key aspect in 2024 as well.
The risk balance to 2024 GDP growth forecast is tilted to the downside due to: higher corporate taxes which could discourage private investments, slower implementation of planned public investments, delays in EU funds absorption, weaker consumer confidence due to uncertainties inherent to an electoral year and stickier-than-anticipated inflation.
EU fund absorption is crucial for 2023 growth estimated by us at +2.1% and will most likely be a key aspect in 2024 as well.
The risk balance to 2024 GDP growth forecast is tilted to the downside due to: higher corporate taxes which could discourage private investments, slower implementation of planned public investments, delays in EU funds absorption, weaker consumer confidence due to uncertainties inherent to an electoral year and stickier-than-anticipated inflation.