Flash 2Q24 GDP estimate and July’s inflation

This week is going to be quite eventful in the region. First, the flash estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter will be published in Czechia, Hungary and Serbia as well as in the Eurozone. We expect the countries in the region to maintain solid q/q expansion. Second, flash inflation estimates will be released in Croatia, Poland and Slovenia as well as in Slovakia within the HICP flash estimate for the Eurozone. Further, throughout the week, Junes retail sales and/or industrial output growth will be published in several countries (Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia). Finally, the Czech central bank holds a rate setting meeting and further monetary easing should be expected. The only open question is the size of monetary easing and whether the Czech central bank will slow the pace from a 50-basis point cut to a 25-basis point cut. At this point, we see a 25-basis point cut to 4.50% as the more likely scenario, due to the persistent cautiousness of the majority of the Board.