PL: Poland grew faster than was expected in 2Q24

Economic recovery in Poland continued in the second quarter. The GDP growth not only accelerated to 3.2% y/y from 2.0% y/y in the 1Q24, but also surprised visibly to the upside.

Our current 2024 growth forecast is at 2.8% and will be prone to revision given the surprise to the upside is quite substantial. The structure of the growth will be released at the end of August, only. We presume, however, that private consumption likely remained the pillar of the growth as households regain purchasing power with falling inflation. The growth of the retail sector was relatively robust, albeit the average growth of retail sales was slightly lower in the second quarter of the year compared to the beginning of the year. As far as industry is concerned the industrial output growth accelerated visibly in the second quarter (average at 2.2% y/y vs. 0.2% y/y in 1Q24). Also compared to the peers Poland was an outlier as far as performance of the industry is concerned as in Czechia, Hungary or Romania, industrial output kept contracting in the second quarter. In these countries, the 2Q24 GDP growth surprised to the downside.