Glance at GDP structure and August’s inflation

It will be quite a busy week in the region, as numerous important releases are scheduled. Let's begin with the 2Q24 GDP structure of Croatia, Czechia, and Poland. While the flash estimate of growth was released in mid-August for Czechia and Poland, Croatia's 2Q24 growth dynamics will be seen for the first time. We believe that private consumption remains the key driver of growth. Additionally, flash estimates of August's inflation will be published in Croatia, Poland, Slovenia, and Slovakia (as part of the HICP flash estimates for the Eurozone). We expect to see similar inflation footprints as in July's numbers. In Hungary, the central bank meeting is the key event of the week, and this time we expect no change in policy rates due to inflation development in July. Finally, Serbia will release the performance of the industry and retail sectors in July, as well as trade data for June. We see Serbia remaining on track for solid economic development in 2024. July's retail sales growth will also be due in Croatia and Slovenia this week. Last but not least, on Friday, after market close, Fitch will publish the rating and outlook revision of Romania. We do not expect any changes.