PL: Inflation remains stable

Instant Comment , 30. Aug.
Inflation remains stable

Inflation in August remained consistent with July, with the flash estimate reporting a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, aligning with our projections. The elevated annual figure is attributed to the de-regulation of energy prices in July, which will have an upward effect for the next eleven months. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.1%.

The changes in the already published consumer basket categories compared to July were minimal. Food prices declined by 0.1% m/m in August, resulting in an annual food inflation rate of 4.1%. Following the price hike in July, energy prices remained relatively stable, increasing by 0.1% month-over-month and 10.3% year-over-year. Lastly, fuels for personal transport equipment saw a monthly decline of 0.9% compared to July, making them 1.7% cheaper than in August of the previous year. Our overall inflation outlook remains unchanged. We anticipate inflation to reach 4.5-5% towards the end of the year, with a decline expected in July 2025 once the effect of the energy price increase dissipates. Moreover, we see an upward risks to inflation coming from the prices of services and more expensive commodity prices on the world markets.