Central banks’ meetings and flash inflation

This week, the rate-setting meetings of two central banks and the preliminary inflation data for September from a few CEE countries, along with PMI indices, will be in focus. While Polands central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, the press conference on Thursday may provide more insights into the possible timing of a rate cut. Recently, there have been increasing voices from MPC members suggesting that the NBP may resume its monetary easing as early as March 2025. On Thursday, the Romanian central bank is likely to deliver another 25bp cut. Underwhelming economic growth in the first half of 2024 strongly supports further rate reductions. The monetary easing from the Fed and ECB, along with dovish stances from other regional central banks, also supports this view. Preliminary inflation data for September from Croatia, Poland, and Slovenia are likely to show higher readings. The highest inflation increase, from 4.3% to 4.8%, is expected in Poland, where the annual price dynamics will be significantly affected by the base effect from a year ago when food and energy prices dropped sharply. In Slovenia, despite an expected price increase, inflation should remain the lowest in CEE, at close to 1%. It will be interesting to watch Septembers PMIs, as preliminary readings for Germany indicate that a recovery of the German manufacturing sector is still not in sight. On Friday, after the market closes, S&P is scheduled to review Serbias sovereign rating. We expect the rating agency to reaffirm the current rating (BB+ with a positive outlook) and upgrade Serbia to investment grade next year.