AT: Erste Group Research

Statistics Austria published its flash estimate of Austrian inflation for September today. Inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), was 1.8% y/y, down on the August figure of 2.4% y/y. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.5 percentage points compared to August and stood at 1.8% y/y.

According to the preliminary estimate by Statistics Austria, this decline in inflation is mainly due to lower price pressure on fuel. Price increases for services have slowed down significantly but remain the main driver of inflation. We expect inflation to continue its downward trend in 2024, as inflationary pressure is easing in almost all sectors. However, inflation in the services sector, supported by wage increases, is likely to keep core inflation at a high level for a while yet. For 2024 as a whole, we expect HICP inflation of around 3.0%, with a further marked decline in 2025.