Inflation in Eurozone below two percent

Flash estimate of euro area inflation arrived at 1.8% y/y in September 2024, down from 2.2% in August. While prices for services are expected to have the highest annual growth rate in September (4.0%, compared with 4.1% in August), energy prices dragged the headline footprint visible down (-6.0% y/y compared with -3.0% y/y in August). This effect is likely to fade out in the months to come, however. As far as Septembers flash estimates are concerned in the region, we have seen inflation falling in Croatia and Slovenia to 1.6% y/y and 0.6% y/y according to local statistical offices estimates. In Croatia, September figure adds a notch or two of downside risks to our 3% CPI average forecast for 2024. Further, in Slovakia, HICP inflation also edged down in September. Only in Poland, headline inflation increase was quite substantial to 4.9% y/y from 4.3% y/y in August. In Poland, our projection anticipates broadly stable annual inflation through the remainder of the year.