Heterogenous retail sales growth in recent months

Retail sales growth in the third quarter shows a mixed bag so far. In Croatia, Poland, Slovakia and Serbia, the average growth in July and August has been lower compared to the second quarter of 2024 and to the first quarter as well. Such development comes despite very strong growth of wages. On the other hand, in Czechia, Hungary and Romania, we see acceleration of the retail sales growth throughout the year. In Hungary, Augusts retail sales figures came as a slight positive surprise as volume of retail sales increased by 4.1% y/y in August, according to the calendar-adjusted statistics. In Romania and Czechia, there was similar development as retail sales growth arrived above the expectations. In Romania, retail sales grew by 9.2% in August due to very strong sales of non-food items that were the main driver of the positive surprise. In Czechia, retail sales growth accelerated to 5.3% y/y in August. All in all, however, data on retail sales point that the recovery may still lack a stronger impetus from the domestic side, although private consumption will unquestionably remain a key driver of the growth in 2024.