IMF releases updated forecasts, global growth to remain stable

Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The forecast for the United States was revised upward and offsets downgrades to those for other advanced economies, particularly the largest European countries. While the global decline in inflation is a major milestone, downside risks are rising and now dominate the outlook. These risks include an escalation in regional conflicts or monetary policy remaining tight for too long. As far as the region is concerned, our 2024 forecasts are mostly aligned with the IMF projections. In Poland, we fine-tuned the 2024 growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.0%, given the quite disappointing development of the economy in September. Both industry and retail sales declined, and the underperformance of the retail sector was a major surprise. Looking into 2025, we remain more optimistic about several CEE countries, namely, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Serbia, as we believe investment will begin to recover and support growth beyond 2024, in which private consumption has been playing a key role. In the case of Romania and Slovenia, we remain more pessimistic.