SI: GDP increased 1.4% y/y in 3Q24

3Q24 GDP came in line with our expectations, accelerating to 1.4% y/y (vs. 0.7% y/y in 2Q24). The breakdown showed steady support from private consumption (1.9% y/y), while investments once again posted a negative performance (-8.2% y/y). Public consumption growth expectedly remained strong (9.1% y/y), while inventories had a negative impact, shaving 1.3pp off the headline figure. External trade surprised on the upside by making a positive contribution, where exports showed stronger increase vs imports (8.4% y/y vs 6.5% y/y, as follows), thus resulting in net exports adding 1.9pp to the headline figure in 3Q24.

Going forward, domestic demand is expected to drive growth as private consumption would keep its supportive tone, while investments activity is seen improving, supported by reconstruction works and RRF funds. On the other hand, challenges regarding the external demand developments should weigh on the export outlook, thus suggesting less supportive net exports contribution ahead. Bottom line, we keep our view for FY24 unchanged i.e. GDP is expected to increase around 1.5% in this year.