HU: Large trade surplus remained

The CSO published the preliminary trade balance figures for October this morning. The surplus on the trade balance amounted to EUR 965 million, EUR 127 million lower than in October 2023.

Despite the yearly decline, this can still be seen as a significant surplus. However, the full picture remains mixed, given that the value of exports declined by 0.8% y/y, while that of imports increased by 0.2% y/y in EUR terms. Thus, despite the large trade surplus, export and import growth figures still indicate subdued internal trade and - likely economic - performance.

The weak export growth figures might be reflected in the October industrial output figures to be published tomorrow. The weak state of Hungarys main export markets still curbs any short-term revival of industrial exports. Next year should be more favorable, due to the expected slow recovery of the Eurozones economies. However, increased uncertainty regarding US policies may affect market sentiment, diminishing the recovery impulse.