CEE Special Report | Key events to watch in 2025
CEE Economies Special Report , 18. Dez.
The last CEE Special Report in 2024 focuses on the key events to watch next year. We have collected the most interesting events that are ahead of the countries in the region.
In Czechia, Poland and, unexpectedly, Romania, 2025 is an election year. In Czechia, parliamentary elections are scheduled for autumn. In Poland, presidential elections will be held in summer. Finally, Romania will vote again for president, most likely in the first quarter of 2025.
In Poland, monetary policy will get a lot of attention. Given recent comments from Governor Glapinski, we wonder whether stability of rates is a possible scenario. Monetary policy will be under scrutiny in Hungary as well. New fiscal and monetary leadership will shape the currency developments to a great extent.
Romania’s political instability and concerns over consolidation efforts may raise the eyebrows of rating agencies. Fitch just changed Romania’s outlook to negative and affirmed its rating at BBB-. Such a decision may be seen as a wake-up call for Romania. We believe a downgrade can be avoided if the government introduces a fiscal adjustment plan.
Rating decisions will be key to watch in Slovenia. All three major agencies confirmed their ratings for Slovenia at ‘A’ (Fitch), ‘A3’ (Moody’s) and 'AA-’ (S&P), while Moody's and S&P upgraded the outlook to positive. We see outlook upgrades serving as a good signal for potential rating upgrades down the line, if the supportive drivers remain in place.
Slovakia plans to issue two tranches (2Y and 4Y) of government bonds for the public, i.e. retail bonds. In Croatia, we are zooming in on the real estate sector. Serbia is getting ready for EXPO 2027, to take place in Belgrade. It thus has an ambitious investment program. Finally, the newly elected US president may demand NATO member countries increase defense spending to well above 2% of GDP to compensate for missed commitments from previous years.
In Czechia, Poland and, unexpectedly, Romania, 2025 is an election year. In Czechia, parliamentary elections are scheduled for autumn. In Poland, presidential elections will be held in summer. Finally, Romania will vote again for president, most likely in the first quarter of 2025.
In Poland, monetary policy will get a lot of attention. Given recent comments from Governor Glapinski, we wonder whether stability of rates is a possible scenario. Monetary policy will be under scrutiny in Hungary as well. New fiscal and monetary leadership will shape the currency developments to a great extent.
Romania’s political instability and concerns over consolidation efforts may raise the eyebrows of rating agencies. Fitch just changed Romania’s outlook to negative and affirmed its rating at BBB-. Such a decision may be seen as a wake-up call for Romania. We believe a downgrade can be avoided if the government introduces a fiscal adjustment plan.
Rating decisions will be key to watch in Slovenia. All three major agencies confirmed their ratings for Slovenia at ‘A’ (Fitch), ‘A3’ (Moody’s) and 'AA-’ (S&P), while Moody's and S&P upgraded the outlook to positive. We see outlook upgrades serving as a good signal for potential rating upgrades down the line, if the supportive drivers remain in place.
Slovakia plans to issue two tranches (2Y and 4Y) of government bonds for the public, i.e. retail bonds. In Croatia, we are zooming in on the real estate sector. Serbia is getting ready for EXPO 2027, to take place in Belgrade. It thus has an ambitious investment program. Finally, the newly elected US president may demand NATO member countries increase defense spending to well above 2% of GDP to compensate for missed commitments from previous years.