HU: Retail sales grew by 4.1% y/y last November

Volume of retail sales rose by 4.1% y/y in November, according to the calendar-adjusted statistics. The actual figure was in line with our estimation and was a bit more favorable than the Bloomberg consensus. Compared to the previous month, volume of sales rose by 0.6%, continuing the positive trend started in October. In January-November 2024, sales volume was up by 2.9% y/y, according to the calendar-adjusted figures.

Among the main branches, the calendar-adjusted sales volumes increased by 5.3% y/y in food shops and by 4.5% y/y in non-food retail branches. Meanwhile, automotive fuel retailing increased by 1.3% y/y in November.

Continuation of the recovery of retail sales could have partly been supported by the Black-Friday effect at the end of last year. The positive trend should continue in the coming months, however, still low consumer confidence indicators and this years expected slowdown in real wage increase justify caution. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that more rapid growth in shop sales is curbed by the increasing relevance of services in consumption. Nevertheless, the October and November monthly increases in sales figures are in line with the view that the economy probably managed to emerge from technical recession in 4Q24. Overall, households consumptionwhich was a drag on growth in 2023was the main GDP growth driver in 2024 that should be the case in 2025, as well. This year, consumption could also be supported by the incoming large coupon payments of inflation-linked retail bonds, especially in the first quarter.