SK: Another trade surplus in November

The Slovak industry performed below our expectations in November, stagnating compared to the previous years level. On a monthly basis in seasonally adjusted terms, industrial production recorded a decrease of 1.2%.

A positive year-on-year development was observed in 8 out of 15 components of the index. The most prominent contributors were manufacture of transport equipment, rising by more than 24% y/y, and other manufacture (+33% y/y). On the contrary, a significant decrease was recorded in manufacture of chemicals (-26% y/y).

Additionally, foreign trade results for November were published. The value of exports recorded an increase of 2.6 % year-on-year, amounting to over EUR 9.4 billion. A significant factor contributing to the performance was the export of machinery and transport equipment, which rose by 3 % year-on-year. The value of imports increased by 2.8 % compared to November 2023, significantly lower than expected.

The trade balance showed a positive result again, amounting to EUR 328 million. Slovakia's foreign trade has remained in surplus throughout the entire year 2024, bringing the YTD balance to EUR 3.9 bn.

Slovak industry continues to face significant fluctuations, driven by challenges in key export markets, particularly Germany. This weakness is beginning to weigh on Slovakia's economic performance. A crucial element in revitalizing industrial activity and boosting foreign trade will be the anticipated recovery of the Eurozone economy, which is expected to bring more sustained and widespread benefits. Until then, subdued activity levels are likely to persist, resulting in weak industrial output and more frequent deficits in foreign trade balances.