GDP releases will show 2024 economic performance

Several CEE countries (Hungary, Poland, Czechia and Serbia) will release GDP data that will allow us to see how the countries performed in 2024. In Hungary, we expect to see weaker than expected economic growth in the fourth quarter. In other countries, we do not expect major surprises. Another important event is the central bank meeting in Hungary, from which we expect no change in the key policy rate, given the recent inflation and exchange rate development. Other than that, we will see Decembers performance of the industry and retail sector in Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. Further, Decembers unemployment rate is due in Poland and Romania, as well as producer prices in Slovakia and Hungary. Finally, on Friday after markets close, Fitch is scheduled to review its Serbia rating. Given the positive outlook, we see a non-negligible chance for a rating upgrade. Macroeconomic developments support an upgrade already in January, but the political tensions may become the key argument for holding off with such a decision until later this year.