Fitch to review Romania’s rating

Poland will release the most interesting set of data, as industrial output growth for January will be published, alongside producer prices and Januarys wage and employment growth. Data on the labor market will also be released in Croatia (Decembers wage growth and Januarys unemployment) and in Slovakia (unemployment). Further, we will see Januarys inflation in Slovakia and Serbia as well as the current account balance in Serbia and Slovakia. On Friday after the market closes, Fitch will announce the rating decision on Romania. Fitch changed the outlook of Romania to negative in December in an unscheduled review. We believe that the rating will not change on Friday. We are convinced that rating agencies will wait until the outcome of the presidential elections and fiscal consolidation path afterward before undertaking any rating decisions. Finally, we have been revising our growth and inflation forecast as well as interest rate outlook for several CEE countries and will communicate the details in the CEE Growth Navigator report (to be released in the upcoming days).