RS: 4Q24 GDP estimate confirmed at 3.3% y/y

With the confirmation of the 4Q24 flash estimate at 3.3% y/y, FY24 real GDP was confirmed at 3.9% y/y. The quarterly release shows some interesting signs. Household consumption remains the locomotive of growth but both public spending and investments have slowed considerably. We link both to relatively high geopolitical uncertainty, both local and global.

Taking into account all factors, we recently decided to cut our FY25 GDP estimate by 0.7pp to 3.8% y/y as, in our opinion, growth in 1H25 will underperform previous expectations. Nevertheless, with stable finances, a hefty cash buffer, chances for a second IG rating from Fitch later this year, and still relatively high growth expectations compared to some other peer countries the country remains in overall good macroeconomic position.