HU: A tiny revival of industry in January

The volume of industry dropped by 3.9% y/y in January, according to the working day-adjusted statistics. The actual figure was somewhat weaker than our estimate and the Bloomberg consensus. On monthly level, the output finally managed to increase, by 0.8% (swda). Meanwhile, there was a serious downward revision in the 2024 December figures, as actually industry dropped by 2.9% m/m and 7.9% y/y versus the previous statistics of -1.8% m/m and -6.4% y/y.

More details on the figures will be released on March 13. According to the CSOs usual short comment, production volume decreased in the majority of the manufacturing subsections in January 2025. Out of the subsections having the largest weight a fall was observed in the manufacture of transport equipment, in the manufacture of electrical equipment, as well as in the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products, while the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products grew.

Todays industrial output figures are rather mixed. The monthly performance showed a small positive correction following the year-end factory halts. However, this upside correction was moderate compared to the depth of the year-end fall. As a result, the December-January period shows a loss of nearly 2%, indicating continued weak performance.

The outlook remains dim. A positive change in external demand is needed to exploit the automotive (BMW, BYD) and battery investments (CATL) planned to enter production in 2025. The outlook is still clouded by global trade risks, primarily due to planned US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions. These factors may further delay a revival of exports and, consequently, an improvement in industrial performance. Positive impacts of capacity expansions may rather appear from 2026.