HU: Still no sign of relevant rebound

The CSO published the preliminary trade balance figures for February this morning. The volume of export lessened by 13%, that of import slightly, by 0.5% in January 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year. The massive decrease in exports was mainly due to base from last year. The surplus was EUR 1.1 billion, the balance worsened by EUR 599 million, year-on-year. The seasonally and working day adjusted volume of exports was 0.9% lower compared to January 2025, that of imports by 0.1%. The balance of the external trade in goods decreased by EUR 240 million, the surplus was EUR 2.1 billion.

The background processes behind the favorable balance figure are still not fine. In level terms we can identify stagnation in both parts of foreign trade while ongoing huge investments should indicate surge of imports. Looking ahead the cyclical improvement of the German economy could bring better prospects of automotive and battery production. The looming trade war could unfortunately offset these positive affects. In the medium-term enormous manufacturing investments, mainly in battery production and automotive sector (CATL, BMW, BYD, Mercedes), are expected to bring gorgeous outlook. Besides as the recent data show the utilization of these capacities will highly depend on the stance of the global economy.