HU: Retail sales corrected slightly downwards in February

In February, retail sales figures corrected downwards. The volume of sales grew by 3.3% y/y according to calendar-adjusted figures, slightly lower than our estimate of 3.8% y/y and the Bloomberg consensus of 4%. On a monthly level, sales volume was down by 0.6%.

Among the three main branches, the calendar-adjusted sales volumes increased by 3.5% y/y in food shops, by 5% y/y in non-food retail branches. Meanwhile, automotive fuel retailing rose by 0.4% y/y in February.

The February data appear to be a correction of the strong January statistics. However, rebound of retail sales may continue, although real wage growth is expected to slow in 2025 after last year's high levels. All in all, in 2025, consumption is set to be the main growth driver, like in 2024. The most relevant risk now is that (1) inflation has started to rise again and (2) as a result of Trumps recently announced huge tariffs, growth outlook has worsened. These could make households spend more cautiously later.