Oil price drop to affect April’s inflation

Today, we look at the development of oil prices in the international markets. Since the summer of 2023, the overall trend in oil prices has been downward, albeit with significant volatility. Following the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, Brent oil prices declined from $74 to $64, representing an approximate 14% drop within a week, likely due to expectations of a slowing global economy. Subsequently, prices stabilized and experienced a slight increase, although they remain well below pre-tariff levels. The implications for inflation, not only in the CEE region, are evident. Gasoline and diesel prices are expected to follow this trend, albeit to a lesser extent. Nevertheless, there may be unexpected downward surprises in April's inflation figures, especially if forecasts were made prior to the unraveling of tariffs. As the situation stabilizes and trading barriers are potentially removed or reduced, oil prices should return to their initial levels.