HU: Front-loading could help in April

The CSO published the preliminary trade balance figures for April this morning. The volume of export lessened by 2.3%, that of import slightly, by 0.1% in April 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year. The surplus was EUR 1.4 billion, the balance worsened by EUR 354 million, year-on-year.

After the bottom point of December, we can see slight, but continuous improvement at beginning of 2025, mainly in the fourth month: exports and imports level could step somewhat forward. German exports to China also increased significantly in March which could positively affect Hungarian export of goods. Front-loading effect before the tariffs could be a major reason behind, we will see how next months will be able to evolve. The general uncertainty caused by the trade war could unfortunately burden the improvement in the short-term. In the medium-term enormous manufacturing investments, mainly in battery production and automotive sector (CATL, BMW, BYD, Mercedes, several suppliers), are expected to bring brighter outlook in parallel with awakening of the far largest trade partner, the German economy. Besides as the recent data show the timing of the launch and utilization of these capacities will still highly depend on the stance of the global economy.