CEE Macro Outlook: Recovery to start in 3,2,1
Given better than expected 1Q21 GDP growth data, stronger global economic outlook and the brisk reopening of CEE economies stemming from the improved epidemiological situation, we have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 3.8% a quarter ago. So far, the recovery has been mostly driven by industrial output, exports of goods and government consumption, while household consumption was depressed by restrictive measures and uncertainty. In the coming quarters, household spending should rebound strongly. In our view, CEE economies could reach their pre-COVID GDP levels in the next few quarters, with most of them achieving that in the second half of the year.