Analysis Q4 2026

From: Global Strategy Q4 2026, 29.09.2026

The price of gold rose by 6.7% in EUR in the third quarter. Year-to-date performance stands at +2.3% in EUR and -0.7% in USD.

Volume-based demand for gold showed mixed results in the second quarter. Jewelry production fell 17% y/y to 310 metric tons, and investment demand declined y/y across all segments. Overall, investment demand fell by 46% y/y in the second quarter to 262 metric tons. The decline was sharpest among global ETFs, at 44%, while demand for coins and bars fell by only 3% y/y. During the third quarter, however, global demand for gold ETFs rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 171 metric tons by mid-September (compared with a decline in the third quarter of the previous year).

Global central banks, on the other hand, significantly increased their gold purchases in the second quarter. They purchased a net total of 289 metric tons of gold, representing a very high annual growth rate of 62%. Strong demand from central banks is a trend that has been ongoing for over a decade and will continue due to gold’s reliable performance in times of crisis. Since gold is not subject to credit or default risk, it remains an effective tool for many central banks to diversify their assets. Demand for gold from the technology sector—where it is primarily used in semiconductor manufacturing—has increased slightly y/y, rising 2% y/y to 80 metric tons. This segment accounts for only about 7% of global demand—the smallest share—and is also becoming less significant.

Currently, there are numerous factors negatively influencing the future trajectory of the gold price. First and foremost, the increased opportunity costs of holding gold are particularly relevant. Yields on government bonds have risen sharply in the U.S. and globally. The strong U.S. dollar and higher key interest rates are reducing gold’s appeal. Furthermore, additional key interest rate hikes are expected in the medium term in both the U.S. and Europe. The Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in the U.S., Europe, and Japan signal expanding economic activity in their respective countries and regions. Economic uncertainties are therefore not high at present. Strong global corporate earnings growth of 31% y/y is a key factor supporting stock indices.

Investors are therefore also finding attractive investment opportunities in the stock markets. From this perspective, a flight to safe-haven investments such as gold is therefore not currently advisable. By contrast, the exceptionally robust demand from global central banks is supporting gold prices, as are the persistently high levels of geopolitical uncertainty.

Outlook: We expect the price of gold to trade sideways in the fourth quarter of 2026, with higher volatility than recently. Our year-end price forecast is approximately USD 4,300.

Investment and central bank purchases

Demand Segments Global
Rolling shares 2Q25 - 2Q26