RS: NBS keeps key rate at 5.75%

NBS once again surprised as it kept its key rate unchanged in November, while the majority of analyst expected a 25bp cut. The key reason behind the decision is likely relative stickiness of inflation, especially its core part, as well as general global unpredictability at the moment which can lead to heightened volatility.

We expected one more cut this year, but that is no longer the case. It seems likely that most CB will now opt to wait and see what the new US administration puts in motion, given that possible introduction of tariffs could lead to higher global inflation. We still expect the NBS to continue easing its monetary stance, albeit at a slower pace than the previously expected 100bps in cuts in 2025. We will revise our forecast in the upcoming days.