European Commission growth forecasts

CEE Macro and FI Daily , 18. Nov
European Commission growth forecasts

According to the Autumn Forecast of the European Commission, real GDP growth in 2024 is expected to be 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. For the EU, this represents a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared to the spring forecast, while the euro area forecast remains unchanged. Growth in the EU is expected to pick up to 1.5% in 2025, as consumption accelerates and investment recovers from the 2024 contraction. Regarding growth projections, most are consistent with our forecasts except for Romania, where the 2024 GDP forecast has been revised down to 0.8% following the economy's disappointing performance in Q3. In terms of the outlook for 2025, we are slightly more pessimistic than the European Commission for Croatia, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. However, our current 2025 GDP expectations for Czechia, Hungary, and Romania are somewhat stronger. Nonetheless, they are susceptible to downward revision, given recent developments. The recovery has been sluggish thus far, and the outcome of the US election adds to uncertainty about next year's projections, not only in these three countries but also across the region.