AT: Inflation at 3.1% in March

Statistics Austria released a flash estimate of Austrian inflation for March today. Inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), was 3.1% y/y, down from February's 3.4% y/y. This would keep Austrian inflation well above the ECB's 2% target for the eurozone average. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation also slowed compared to February, coming in at 2.9% y/y.

According to the preliminary estimate by Statistics Austria, energy prices are again having a price-driving effect, rising by +2.2% y/y. Compared to February, the year-on-year price increase declined due to lower fuel prices. Service price increases remain the main driver of inflation, up +4.2% y/y. The momentum of energy inflation should continue to ease in the coming months. In the services sector, too, price pressure is likely to fall over the course of the year due to moderate wage increases. For 2025 as a whole, we expect HICP inflation of around 2.4%, followed by a further slight decline in 2026.