Growth outlook revised downwards due to tariffs

In response to the Trumps announcement of global tariffs we adjust our growth forecast for all CEE countries for 2025 and 2026. Our initial growth expectations for CEE were between 2% and 3.8% in 2025 and between 1.9% and 4.3% in 2026. The revision of forecasts for 2025 is rather marginal, up to 0.3 percentage points depending on the country. The negative impact in 2026 is slightly bigger. However, in 2026, the final magnitude will depend on the durability of the current tariff rate (baseline scenario of tariffs reduction to 10% in 2H25 vs. adverse scenario of a 20% rate permanently set). The hit to economic development in the region should be mitigated to some extent by the expected fiscal stimulus in Germany. We discuss the details in our latest CEE Special Report Will tariffs knock out the growth?.