PL: Consumption and investment drive GDP growth

Instant Comment , 2. Jun
Consumption and investment drive GDP growth

GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 (3.2% y/y, not seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% y/y in seasonally adjusted terms) was driven by domestic demand, particularly solid growth in private consumption and investment activity. On the other hand, net exports contributed negatively to the GDP figure in 1Q25.

Domestic demand grew by 4.6% y/y in 1Q25 in Poland. Private consumption increased by 2.5% y/y, while investment growth accelerated to 6.3% y/y. The positive contribution of domestic demand (4.3 percentage points) was outweighed by a negative external balance. Net exports subtracted 1.1 percentage points from the headline 1Q25 GDP figure.

Overall, this GDP structure aligns with our expectations regarding the key growth drivers for 2025. Real wage growth remains positive, supporting household spending. Investment activity was expected to pick up due to the increasing inflow of EU funds, and we anticipate it will remain solid throughout the rest of the year.

Our current growth forecast for 2025 stands at 3.1%, and we expect similar growth dynamics in the following year. In light of the presidential election outcome and the victory of right-wing candidate Nawrocki, we are not revising our GDP forecastat least not at this point. We remain confident that Polands economic development will be among the strongest in 2025not only within the CEE region but across the entire EU. Unlike other CEE countries, Poland has remained relatively resilient to the expected global economic slowdown and growing pessimism about future prospects.