OECD revised global growth down

CEE Macro and FI Daily , 4. Jun
OECD revised global growth down

According to the OECD, substantial increases in trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and elevated policy uncertainty all pose significant risks to growth. The OECD has therefore revised its global growth forecasts down to 2.9% for both 2024 and 2025. If these trends continue, they could substantially dampen economic prospects. On the other hand, an early reversal of recent trade barriers could boost economic growth. Most recently, we have seen an easing in the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, driven by hopes that negotiations on tariffs will lead to some agreement. However, the index remains at unprecedented levels. As for the growth forecasts of the CEE countries, the OECD holds a similar, though marginally more optimistic, view for most of them. Only in Romania and Slovakia are our growth forecasts slightly higher compared to those of the OECD. However, we acknowledge the persisting downside risks to the economic performance of these two countries.