The price of gold fell by -6% in EUR in Q2 following the all-time high reached a quarter earlier. Year-to-date performance stands at +2% in EUR and +1% in USD.

Demand from buyers of gold coins and bars remained very high in Q1 2026. It rose by +46% year-over-year to 421 metric tons. Global central banks remained net buyers of gold in Q1 2026, with demand rising by +3% y/y in metric tons and by a very high +75% y/y in USD. Gold accounts for approximately 27% of global central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. This is higher than the share of U.S. Treasury bonds, which account for approximately 22%, and also higher than the share of the euro, which stands at approximately 15%. The positive trend in demand from central banks is expected to continue. This forecast is confirmed by a survey of global central banks published in June by the World Gold Council, according to which 89% of central banks expect an increase in their currency reserves held in gold. At the same time, a record 45% of central banks indicated that they will also increase their own holdings over the next 12 months. The main reasons for the steady demand from central banks are hedging against geopolitical risks and asset diversification.

In recent months, there has also been a shift away from jewelry demand toward physical bars and coins. In mid-May, India significantly raised the tariff on gold imports from 6% to 15%. This will slow down India’s typically very high demand for jewelry over the course of the year, as it is highly price-sensitive.

Driven by very strong earnings growth among global companies and a decline in volatility on the stock markets, demand for risky assets such as stocks rose in the second half of the second quarter. As a result, investment demand via gold ETFs subsided. Gold ETFs recorded outflows of USD 2 billion in May. Demand declined particularly in Asia and the U.S. Only in Europe did gold ETFs see slight inflows. Holdings in gold ETFs fell to 4,121 metric tons, slightly below the February high of 4,176 metric tons.

Currently, the factors influencing the price of gold are balanced. The opportunity cost of holding gold is currently a relevant consideration. The high—and expected to rise slightly—yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are reducing gold’s appeal. In addition, U.S. benchmark interest rates are expected to rise in September, which points to a strengthening of the USD. This is putting a damper on gold price performance. Driven by strong corporate earnings growth, the global stock index has reached new record highs. The robust stock market environment, coupled with historically low volatility, also dampens the relative attractiveness of gold as an asset class. On the other hand, stable demand from central banks is having a strongly positive effect. Physical demand for gold should also remain robust following the price decline of recent weeks.

Outlook: We expect the gold price to be less volatile in the third quarter than in recent months and to trend sideways. We forecast a gold price of USD 4,300 at the end of the third quarter.