US customs policy dominates outlook

The increase in general tariffs to between 10% and 55% on the most important trading partners announced by the US for August 1 is dampening global growth prospects. However, the eurozone economy should be supported by the interest rate cuts and fiscal measures already implemented. We forecast GDP growth of 0.8% for 2025, followed by a slight acceleration to 1.0% in 2026. For the US, we expect economic growth of 1.4% in both 2025 and 2026, assuming the current reciprocal tariff rates remain in place.