Parade of the central banks in the region

There are four central bank meetings scheduled this week. Poland will be the first to present its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and we do not expect any change in the interest rate. New growth and inflation projections will also be published. On Thursday, both Czechia and Serbia's central banks will hold rate setting meetings, with an expected 25-basis point cut in both countries. On Friday, the central bank in Romania is expected to remain on hold. Additionally, we will see data on retail and industrial output growth in several CEE countries for September, including Czechia, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. This data is likely to provide some insights into the cases of Romania and Slovakia, as these two countries are still ahead of 3Q24 GDP releases, while Czechia and Hungary have already published their flash estimates. In Hungary, we are revising our forecast, given the sizable contraction of the economy in the third quarter. Finally, Czechia, Slovakia and Slovenia will publish trade data. On Friday, after markets close, Moodys is scheduled to revise Croatias rating. We expect and upgrade. Poland will be scrutinized by S&P and Fitch Ratings. Neither rating nor outlook should be changed.