Dynamic start of the year: inflation, retail and industry data and central bank meeting in Serbia

We wish our readers a prosperous year!

The beginning of the week is filled with data releases across the region. Lets begin with flash estimates of Decembers inflation. In Poland, the inflation rate at the end of the year was lower than expected. On Tuesday, Croatia will release its December inflation figure. Several CEE countries (Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania) have retail sales and industrial output growth for November scheduled. In Slovakia, trade data will also be released, and we expect to see a negative trade balance for the first time in quite a long time. Finally, in Serbia, the central bank will hold a rate setting meeting and we expect the central bank to remain on hold. As for other news, Croatia will hold a second round of presidential elections on January 12. Incumbent President Milanovic narrowly missed victory in the first round. Romania announced the first steps of fiscal consolidation with measures coming into force as of January 1. Czechia will begin publishing flash inflation estimates as of February (shortly ahead of the central bank meeting). We marginally adjusted our 2025 growth forecast for Czechia to 2.2% (down from 2.3%).