SI: GDP increased 1.5% y/y in 4Q24, wrapping up FY24 growth at 1.6%

4Q24 GDP growth landed at 1.5% y/y, thus practically remaining at the same level as in previous quarter (i.e. 1.6% y/y in 3Q24), while landing somewhat above our expectations (EBCe 1% y/y). As far as the breakdown goes, on the domestic demand side we saw no surprises private consumption kept its supportive role (1.2% y/y), while investments once again posted a negative performance (-5.2% y/y), albeit showing moderating decline compared to the previous quarter. Public consumption growth expectedly remained strong (5.7% y/y), while inventories had mild negative impact by shaving off 0.6pp from the headline figure growth. However, positive surprise came from the external trade, where exports showed stronger increase vs imports (3.9% y/y and 2.3% y/y, respectively), thus resulting in net exports adding 1.3pp to the headline figure in 4Q24.

On a full year scale, GDP thus expanded 1.6% in 2024, with mild upward revision of the previous growth numbers (+0.2pp) impacting the yearly average. Structure showed strongest support from the private and public consumption, while investments and net exports were drag on the overall FY24 performance. Looking into this year, we expect domestic demand to remain pivotal growth engine, with private consumption maintaining steady growth momentum, coupled with the improving investment activity profile. On the other hand, despite resilient exports performance in 2H24, challenges regarding the external demand developments are seen weighing on the export outlook, thus diminishing net exports contribution in period ahead. We expect GDP growth to land around 2% mark in 2025, with risks remaining present and linked to external demand uncertainties.