First quarter growth data to be completed for CEE

This week will bring, among other releases, a new batch of 1Q GDP data. On Monday, Romania will release its March trade balance, followed by Serbia's April CPI data. Tuesday will feature Romanian CPI, where the annual figure is expected to decelerate but remain high, influenced by a significant drop in energy prices. Slovakia will also release wage growth data. Wednesday will bring current account balance data for Romania and Serbia, as well as Romanian industrial production data, which is anticipated to show a deeper annual decline due to a base effect. Slovakia will release its inflation data on the same day. Thursday is GDP day, with 1Q GDP releases from Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Poland. Romanian GDP growth is expected to be modest, with slowing consumption and contractionary net exports, though investments might provide a boost. Slovakia and Poland will also release initial estimates of their economic performance, with annual growth expectations of around 3% for Poland and 1.2% for Slovakia. In Slovenia, we expect GDP to maintain stable growth dynamics also going into 1Q25. The week will conclude with the Czech PPI and Romanian central bank decision, where stability is expected. After market hours, Fitch will publish its sovereign rating revision of Slovakia. The second round of presidential elections in Romania is planned for May 18, with far-right Simion the frontrunner.