HU: Worse figure, but good omen

The CSO published the preliminary trade balance figures for May this morning. The volume of export grew by 3.2%, that of import by 5.4% in May 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year. The seasonally and working day adjusted volume of exports was 0.9% lower compared to January 2025, while the seasonally and working day adjusted export volume lagged behind the April 2025 level by 0.6%, that of import surpassed it by 2.0%. The surplus was EUR 739 million, the balance deteriorated by EUR 281 million, year-on-year. In the first five months of 2025 the trade balance in goods decreased by EUR 586 million, the surplus was EUR 6.1 billion.

At first glance lower figure for the balance looks bad, although from February onwards we can observe gradual improvement in the level of imports which could mean positive developments respect to the so far falling investments. On the other data for May proved that the jump of export in April was mainly driven by front-loading ahead of tariffs. Looking ahead the cyclical improvement of the German economy could bring better prospects of automotive and battery production. The looming trade war could unfortunately offset these positive effects. Enormous projects are in the pipeline (BMW, BYD, CATL, Mercedes, etc.), however recent market developments and the general environment could rewrite the plans as we can see in the case of CATL which paused the second phase of its unit in Debrecen.