Industrial performance varies compared to last year

Performance of the industry between January and May has been better compared to 2024 in Czechia and Croatia. In Poland, Romania and Serbia, growth dynamics of industrial output five months into 2025 is similar to one observed last year. In Romania, industrial output recovered in May growing by 3.7% y/y as opposed to -2.1% y/y decline in April. In other countries, namely, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia, industrial output growth has so far been weaker compared to 2024. The most pronounced decline of the industry took place in Hungary, where each month since the beginning of the year industry contracted. The most recent news that the Chinese CATL plans to postpone the construction of the second phase of the Debrecen plant is not favorable for the outlook of the industry in Hungary. That comes at the top of uncertainty around tariffs that is a growth negative factor in other countries as well. The Czech Ministry of Finance for example estimates that 30% tariffs on imports (to be imposed if no deal is reached between the EU and the US by August 1) would slow the Czech economic growth by 0.4 percentage points this year and by 1.1 percentage point in 2026.