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Austria Economy

Economic Outlook

Economy grows marginally in first quarter

Statistics Austria published its preliminary calculation of the national accounts for 1Q25. According to the figures, the Austrian economy grew slightly by +0.1% compared to the previous quarter and was therefore close to the previously published flash estimate of +0.2%. Over the year as a whole, however, Austria's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by -0.5% y/y, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline. A look at the GDP components shows a mixed picture. Private consumption grew by +0.9% y/y for the third quarter in a row, while gross investment also increased by +1.2% y/y. Exports fell for the eighth consecutive quarter and, at -4.0% y/y, performed worse than in the previous quarters. Pull-forward effects in exports in connection with the US tariffs, which could be observed in Germany, for example, are unlikely to have had any effect on the Austrian economy in 1Q25. We forecast GDP growth of -0.2% for 2025. In particular, US tariffs, in conjunction with Donald Trump's erratic policies, are weighing on Austria's export sector and subsequently on investment. We do not expect a positive impetus from the planned German infrastructure program until next year. We expect GDP growth of +0.4% in 2026.