Rate cut in Serbia and four rating decisions

This week will feature several important macroeconomic data releases and announcements. September inflation data will be published for Czechia, Hungary, Romania and Serbia. Industrial production likely contracted in August in Czechia and Slovakia, while Slovenia might report a mild recovery. August retail sales should maintain strong dynamics in Romania (7.7% y/y), but are expected to grow significantly more slowly in Hungary and Slovakia (2.5-2.8% y/y), lagging behind the brisk real wage growth. We expect the National Bank of Serbia to lower its key rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% on Thursday. On Friday, after the market close, there will be a series of rating decisions. S&P is set to review the ratings of Czechia and Romania, and we do not expect any changes in either ratings or outlooks, which are currently stable. Slovenia’s rating will be assessed by Fitch and Moody’s. We expect both Fitch and Moody's to remain on hold i.e. affirm their ratings at 'A' and 'A3', respectively, with stable outlook