2Q24 GDP growth surprised mostly to the downside

In CEE, flash estimates of 2Q24 GDP growth surprised mostly to the downside across the region weighing on the full year outlooks. In Czechia surprise to the downside was rather marginal (0.4% y/y vs. expectations at 0.6% y/y) while in Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia GDP growth fell short of expectations to a greater extent. Therefore, the revisions of 2024 growth will likely follow. Only Poland surprised to the upside as 2Q24 landed at 3.2% y/y (expectations at 2.7% y/y). We will put the 2024 forecast under revision as well. In Serbia growth remained solid above 4% and mostly in line with expectations. The GDP structure will be released at the end of August and beginning of September. Looking at monthly indicators, retail sector sustained solid performance as average growth of retail sales accelerated in 2Q24 in most of the countries. Industry on the contrary contracted and in many countries the decline of industrial output growth was more substantial in 2Q24 compared to the beginning of the year. Poland was one of the exceptions as industrial output growth accelerated to 2.2% y/y on average in 2Q24.